#6: Population collapse vs Climate change, Artificial General Intelligence, The role of oceans
Hello there, it’s Àlex, Marc & Miquel, authors of the 3X Newsletter, home of the impact society.
We are here to inspire some of our brightest citizens to write the next chapters of our history by scaling companies or working on projects that help solve society’s biggest problems, while also living environmentally conscious lives.
Let’s dive in!
One reflection
Elon vs The activists
Population growth is a hot, and confusing, topic these days. You’ve got opinions pointing towards very different directions and it’s hard to decide whom to trust.
For instance, we’ve heard Elon saying that population will collapse due to low birth rates:
At the same time, we’ve got climate activists claiming that population will increase massively bringing on a climate disaster.
So, who’s got it right? And, more importantly, since both paths seem to be taking us to disaster: should we be concerned?
Let’s look at the facts
The UN projects that population will climb from ~8Bn today to ~10Bn by 2100. And, plot twist, after that we will start to degrow:
This is the result of 2 current different realities under the same umbrella of collapsing fertility rates (children per woman):
Developing countries (3.9) are still above the replacement rate (2.1), but its population is expected to stop growing in about 50 to 70 years
Developed countries have been below the replacement rate for many years now (1.5) - with China recently joining this party
So:
We will be 25% more people 70 years from now (mostly Africans). And then, the global population will start to shrink.
Negative consequences from such a population roller coaster are on the horizon, and therefore, there’s basis for both Elon and the activists concerns.
The solution: de-coupling development
As we explained in our previous entry, developed nations are starting grow their economies while decreasing their negative climate impact (what some call de-coupling). Unfortunately, developing nations are far from such a feat.
So, in a world where the population still grows in developing nations and where we need to reduce the amount of resources we take from our planet, our first move is clear: help developing nations de-couple. Fast.
Growth, Technology & Education
In developed nations, fewer people will mean fewer resources, which will be positive for our planet. Yet, fewer people make less stuff (and have fewer ideas), which turns into less innovation and economic growth.
And, as we argued before, without economic growth there is no social progress or climate safety (we need 275Tn$ investment and many breakthroughs over the coming 30 years to ensure the prosperity of our planet).
Therefore our second move would be to find ways to sustain growth while unlinking it (decoupling) from population growth. We need to do a lot more with fewer people, and this will come through technology, and, of course, its backbone: education.
This approach can also be supported by ensuring that people from developing countries have equal opportunity to contribute to the breakthroughs we will need.
And after 2100 what? Civilization collapse?
The question is what happens after 2100 with a consistent decline in the fertility rates across the board? Will we eventually disappear?
Our perspective is to first solve for the most pressing issues around the climate crisis today and then look into how to ensure population growth past 2100 tomorrow, we’ll surely find creative ways to improve fertility rates aka making more babies.
Impact stories
Artificial General Intelligence: Sam Atlman released a manifesto on AGI, the technology whose mission is to ensure that AI benefits all of humanity
The benchmark European carbon contract hit a record high approaching 100 euros a tonne with cooler weather forecasts and expectations of lower wind power output driving up demand
The European Parliament gave its final approval to a ban on new sales of carbon-emitting petrol and diesel cars by 2035, with a view to getting them off the continent's roads by mid-century
One quote
“We do not inherit the Earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children”
~ Native American proverb
They bring beauty and inspiration to our lives, they allow us to find food, medicine and even recreation in them, but most importantly, oceans are doing there fair share to help us in our quest to reach climate safety:
Oceans absorb large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This helps to mitigate the impacts of climate change, such as rising temperatures and ocean acidification
Oceans also absorb a significant amount of the sun's heat, which helps to regulate the Earth's temperature and reduce the impact of global warming
Ocean currents play a crucial role in regulating the Earth's climate by distributing heat around the globe. This helps to regulate temperatures in different regions and maintain a stable climate
Marine life, such as phytoplankton and other algae, absorb carbon dioxide and produce oxygen through photosynthesis. This helps to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and support life on Earth
Overall, oceans play a crucial role in mitigating the impacts of climate change, and it is important that we work to protect and conserve these vital ecosystems for the benefit of present and future generations.
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